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Condo cranes could soon make their reappearance on the Southwest Florida skyline.
That's a good sign the real estate market is recovering, says Gay Rebel Thompson, president of Cement Industries in Fort Myers. Thompson supplies cement to construction companies for large-scale projects like condos, so her company's performance is a good gauge of the local economy.
But Thompson isn't proclaiming a full-on recovery yet. “I don't know that this is sustained,” she says. “It's up and down.”
Over the last six years of the recession, Thompson says she's seen signs of a recovery dashed. Her caution is reflective of the widespread conservative mood among business owners today.
William Thompson II, Gay Thompson's father, founded the company 60 years ago and she runs the firm with two siblings and a silent investor. At the peak in 2005, the company's revenues hit $22 million with 205 employees at the 40-acre facility in Fort Myers. She declines to cite revenues or employee counts today for competitive reasons.
Thompson has been through four recessions and says each lasted a couple of years and recovered with seven to eight years of growth. But this cycle is unusual in that the recovery hasn't occurred for six years. “We've never experienced that kind of a bust,” she says. “I'd be curious to know what normal is.”
Still, Thompson says she's seeing some encouraging signs. “I'm hoping this is the year we've gotten some traction,” she says.
For example, the backlog of work at Cement Industries is up five-fold from one year ago, albeit from low levels. “We've got a lot of capacity,” she says.
Thompson worries that she might not be able to find qualified labor if the market recovers strongly. Skilled workers who can perform tasks like read blueprints left the area when the market collapsed. “They've had five years to leave,” she says.
But Thompson says she was encouraged when she recently had to hire 40 people for a job and got four applicants for each vacant position. Word spread quickly and many applicants came from outside the Southwest Florida region, she says.
Still, Thompson remains concerned about the availability of labor. “The next 30 employees may be a lot harder to get,” she says. “That's a long-term concern.”
If the recovery takes hold, Thompson says there are geographic areas and real estate sectors that could benefit. Apartments and assisted-living facilities will benefit from population growth, for example.
Thompson says she's encouraged by waterfront development in Punta Gorda, efforts to revitalize downtown Cape Coral and opportunities in outlying areas such as Ave Maria in eastern Collier County. “I love Ave Maria,” she says, of the town developed by Domino's Pizza Founder Tom Monaghan and Barron Collier Cos. “Twenty years from now it'll look like a genius move.”
For now, Thompson says she hopes the recent economic gains continue. “We're all looking for some sense that it's here to stay,” she says. “You're going to know in six months to a year.”
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