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Coffee Talk
+ Optimism a tough sell
for small business owners
If you like optimistic outlooks on the economy and feel-good statements about when things will turnaround, then the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business isn't for you.
That's because this survey is chock full of negatives, starting with the index of Small Business Optimism: That index dropped 2.2 points to 89.3 in the lobbying group's most recent quarterly survey, released last month. That number is so devoid of optimism that the NFIB considers it a "recession level reading."
The optimism index hasn't been that low since February 1980, when it was 82.6. The Optimism Index is made up of a combination of real data, such as capital spending and wages, mixed in with small business owners' opinions on a variety of topics, from future hiring to the impact of inflation.
The NFIB lobbies for small business interests on both a national and a state level. Its members are a combination of small and medium sized businesses, with high concentrations in the retail and construction industries. Some other nuggets from the NFIB survey:
• Earnings and profits produced some of the gloomiest responses. For example, small businesses' earnings are at their lowest point since the early 1990s and 90% of the survey respondents expect to see more declines for the remainder of 2008. What's more, the survey reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, "businesses reporting declining earnings beat out those with gains by 28%."
• Inflation concerns are deepening. "The number of owners citing inflation as their number one business problem is at its highest level since the first quarter of 1982," the survey states. In response, 23% of the survey respondents said they've already raised prices, while another 32% said price hikes are imminent;
• The amount of money small businesses are spending on internal improvements continues to decrease. More than half of the respondents, 54%, reported a lower frequency of capital outlays, the survey reported. And the amount of business owners planning future expenditures the rest of the summer decreased as well.
However, the NFIB reports that small business owners, as a group claim not to be affected by the credit crunch.
"Regular borrowing activity was reported by 35% of the owners, down 1% from April and typical of readings for the past 15 years," the survey stated. "There is also no evidence of cash problems."
+ Hometown Democracy
tries for ballot again
Florida Hometown Democracy, the statewide effort to require individual land-use decisions be decided by referendum, fired a recent salvo in its comeback attempt.
After failing to get enough signatures by Feb. 1 to get on the November ballot, FHD and its supporters filed a motion in the southern district of federal court in Palm Beach challenging the methodology from the Florida Division of Elections for signature verification.
Florida Hometown came up 15,567 signatures short of the 611,009 signatures that state law requires. The state has filed a motion to dismiss.
"They (FHD supporters) said it was irrational," Tampa real estate attorney Ron Weaver told Coffee Talk. "They claim they did have enough signatures.
"I don't think they have legal basis," Weaver adds. "The people voted for the Feb. 1 deadline."
Plus, Weaver said the passage of FHD statewide "would be devastating," to the state economy, especially now.
"In the middle of this economy, of all times to be doing this," Weaver says. "We have an unbelievable time of it right now."
Weaver quotes former Gov. Jeb Bush when referring to Florida Hometown Democracy: "Good name. Bad idea."
But Ross Burnaman, a Tallahassee attorney working with FHD, is hopeful: "We are trying to get on the ballot for November 2008."
Even though it is not officially part of FHD, attorney Ken Weiss is working with some local residents of St. Pete Beach in another recent round with developers who are proposing hotel development in that community.
"I hope they (FHD supporters) succeed," Weiss told Coffee Talk.
+ Bank of Florida
stock takes a hit
What prompted the precipitous fall of the stock of Bank of Florida in recent days?
The sell-off started June 30, when the Naples-based bank-holding company's stock fell 14%. From that day to July 7, the stock fell 36% to $5.37. The stock recovered 16% on July 8, but it was still down 46% for the year to date.
Bank of Florida executives couldn't be reached, but the company hasn't issued any market-moving news. The likely scenario is investors have dumped financial stocks in recent weeks as fear of the credit crunch was reignited.
Is this simply a case of investors throwing out the baby with the bathwater? Bank of Florida caters to a wealthy clientele and hasn't been caught up in the subprime lending mess, though it has told investors that some loans in Lee County have soured. Read the next earnings report for clues.
+ Candidate's support comes
from surprising sources
Jono Miller, an unabashed pro-environment Democrat running for Sarasota County Commissioner, is getting some big-name support from some unlikely sources. Namely, three of the area's most prominent landowners and homebuilders are backing his candidacy for the commission's District One seat over his Republican opponent.
One Miller supporter - lifelong Republican Hugh Culverhouse Jr., whose late father owned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers - tells Coffee Talk he's never actively supported a Democrat in a local election. (Although Culverhouse, who runs Palmer Ranch in Sarasota County, did vote for Bill Clinton for president - once.)
Joining Culverhouse in supporting Miller are Pat Neal, who runs Lakewood Ranch-based Neal Communities, one of the largest homebuilders in Manatee County and Rex Jensen, president and chief executive of Schroeder-Manatee Ranch, the developers of Lakewood Ranch in east Manatee County. Both developers have projects and interests in Sarasota County.
Neal has personal experience in politics, having served two terms in the Florida state senate in the 1970s and 1980s as a Republican. Although unlike Culverhouse, Neal came to the GOP later in life, initially serving one term as a Democratic state legislator before switching parties.
The support from some of the development community for Miller, who has taken an unpaid leave from his job as director of the Environmental Studies program at New College in Sarasota to run for office, is even more stunning when considering the anti-development tilt the commission has taken the past two years.
Several projects have been scaled back, both due to market forces and commission votes. And the process of getting any type of project approved has become even tougher thanks to supermajority and unanimous approval referendums that were approved by voters.
But both Culverhouse and Neal say Miller's intelligence and leadership skills win out over any preconceived notions he might have about landowners and developers, not to mention their projects. "I'd rather have a smart person than a person who has biases that are either pro-growth or anti-growth," says Culverhouse, who has given $1,000 to the Miller campaign through his five companies.
Neal adds that he has been unimpressed with Carolyn Mason, the Republican candidate opposing Miller for the seat which was left vacant when two-term Republican commissioner Paul Mercier decided not to seek a third term. Neal says Mason, who previously served on the Sarasota City Council, including a term as mayor, "has shown no signs of leadership."
The trio of Miller supporters doesn't represent the entire building community. For instance, Henry Rodriguez, a developer with several projects in south Sarasota County and Lee Wetherington, a Sarasota-based homebuilder, support Mason. The Gulf Coast Builders Exchange also hasn't endorsed Miller.
Miller says he's not surprised some developers have backed him, adding that he wouldn't have run if he didn't think he could get people who don't always think like him to support him. Says Miller: "I don't just color with green crayons."
+ Russell index leaves little
room for Gulf Coast muscle
The annual reconfiguration of the stocks that make up the family of Russell Indexes wasn't very friendly to Gulf Coast companies this year.
Last year, the heavily watched indexes jettisoned four area companies, only to replace them with four others. But this year, the indexes, which are made up of the Russell 3000, the Russell 2000 and the Russell 1000, demoted three Gulf Coast-based companies and only found one replacement.
The lone Gulf-Coast based company the indexes added this year was the Flanders Corp., a St. Petersburg-based air filter designer and manufacturer; the company, which trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol FLDR, was also on the Russell 3000 Index in 2006.
The Russell indexes go through a portfolio rebalancing each year to find the most comprehensive and telling monitors of what the stock market is doing and what it will do in the future. This year, the trio of Gulf Coast-based companies that fund mangers demoted from the indexes to the less prestigious Russell Microcap Index are businesses that are having a multitude of other problems.
For example, two of the companies that were demoted - Bonita Springs-based homebuilder WCI Communities and Venice window and door manufacturer PGT Industries - are struggling under the weight of the residential real estate collapse. The problems are especially acute at WCI, which was recently trading at just $1.37 a share with a market capitalization that had fallen to as low as $57 million.
Another Bonita Springs-based company, marketing and publishing firm Source Interlink, was also cut out of the Russell 3000 Index. Source Interlink's shares have also been trading under $2.
+ Mines and airports
don't mix
Just as we reported recently, a Coral Gables consulting firm hired by Lee County to develop a plan for 83,000 acres in southeast Lee County suggested concentrating limestone-rock mining near Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers.
The limestone rock in Lee County is as good as gold. Only a few areas of the state have this essential ingredient for construction of roads and there's about $10 billion worth of it there by some estimates.
The Lee County Commission imposed a moratorium preventing new mines in the area until they've agreed on a comprehensive development plan. But limiting mining near the airport might be the same thing as banning it because the Federal Aviation Administration doesn't allow excavation near airports.
Perhaps Lee County commissioners should take a cue from Gov. Charlie Crist's straight forward deal with U.S. Sugar and buy the 83,000 acres instead of regulating business away.
+ The search is on
for new chamber head
After seven years at the helm, Kim Scheeler has announced that he is leaving his post as president of the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce to accept a similar job in Richmond, Va.
Scheeler, 53, told Coffee Talk he will help the chamber search for his replacement.
So the speculation has begun: Will the chamber leadership pick a local person or bring in someone from the outside?
A local person would have relationships. An outsider would bring a fresh approach with ideas learned elsewhere.
Both approaches have worked. Tampa Bay & Co., the convention and visitors bureau, named local broadcast executive Paul Catoe as its president.
Tampa International Airport's aviation authority brought in Louis Miller from Salt Lake City to be executive director. Both Catoe and Miller have received high performance marks.
Scheeler is a local guy who brought financial stability and regionalism to the chamber. Prior to joining the chamber, Scheeler served as president of the United Way of Hillsborough County.
The chamber has had mixed luck with outside candidates. Some, such as Don Barber, have brought stability. But others, such as Jay Garner and Harvey Schmitt, have had controversial tenures among Tampa's mainly conservative business leadership.
+ Tampa tech forum
hits the right chords
They've come a long way since their early days at the Tampa Theater.
The Tampa Bay Technology Forum's annual fundraiser, Tech Jam, where local tech companies put away the laptops, pick up guitars and play rock n' roll on stage, has been moved to the St. Pete Times Forum in downtown Tampa.
The technology group has also enlisted the help of professionals, such as rockers Ken Block and Drew Copeland from Sister Hazel to bring in a crowd.
"Sister Hazel is coming in and we're excited," says Amy Norman, chief executive officer of the group.
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