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What They're Saying: LSI Cos.

Southwest Florida is expected to continue to benefit from in-migration

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  • | 6:00 a.m. June 7, 2019
  • Commercial Real Estate
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Commercial real estate brokerage firm LSI Cos.’ first quarter 2019 Market Trends report highlights a number of trends affecting both homebuilding and commercial properties throughout Southwest Florida. In addition to population figures and number of homebuilding permits, the report also provides data on airport traffic, regional household incomes, notable land transactions and median home sale prices in Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties.



 On market sentiment: “Leading into 2019, market sentiment that a pullback  or slowdown is looming was palpable. The consensus is the conclusion of this longest recorded economic expansion is nearing.”


On homebuilding permit momentum: “The prime driver of adding permits is our population growth, which from 2017-18, the first time since the 2011-12 year, had a growth rate that fell below 2.0%.”


On future net in-migration: “We continue to believe we will see added positive net-migration in Southwest Florida due, in part, to the favorable tax climate of Florida as well as the year-round warmer weather. This bodes well for stable growth in the area, albeit not as rapidly as the preceding years.”


On Southwest Florida’s 1.91% population growth in 2018 vs. 2017: “This is three times the national population growth rate (0.62%) and 24% higher than Florida’s population growth rate (1.54%) over the same period.”


On Lee County’s projected population growth: “Lee County’s population is expected to grow 38.5% from 2018 to 2045, which is the fourth-highest percentage gain for any county in the state of Florida with a current population of 350,000 residents or more.”





Lee County’s population in 2018, according to U.S. Census estimates. The 2018 population is 70% larger than the county’s total number of residents in 2000, at 443,903. Lee’s population as of July of last year also is larger than that of the combined Collier and Charlotte counties, which stood at 557,343.



Total number of new housing permits issued in Collier, Charlotte and Lee counties over the 12-month period ending March 31 of this year. The figure represented a 27.6% increase from the prior 12-month period for the same region.



Amount of the increase, on a percentage basis, of passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International Airport from 2000 through 2018. During the same period, regional population growth rose 56.9%.



Percentage of population in Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties that is aged 55 years or over, according to U.S. Census figures as of 2017.



Amount in U.S. dollars of the median household income in Collier County in 2017, according to U.S. Census figures. By comparison, Lee County’s median household income stood at $53,928 that year, while Charlotte County residents had median household income — meaning half had more and half less — of $52,070.



Number of people who moved to Southwest Florida from New York and New Jersey in 2017, according to U.S. Internal Revenue Service figures. The states ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, topping traditional states for in-migration such as Illinois and Ohio.



Amount of the increase, on a percentage basis, of multifamily unit permits issued in the City of Fort Myers over the 12-month period ended March 31. Of the 2,226 permits issued, the majority were for either rental apartments or assisted living units.



Total number of residential housing permits issued in all Lee County municipalities over the 12-month period ended March 31. The figure represented a 35.4% increase over the prior 12 months.



Amount of the median price of a single-family, detached residence in Collier County as of the first quarter of 2019, according to the Naples Area Board of Realtors. The figure was down 7.5% from the same period in 2018. By comparison, the median sales price for a similar residence in Lee County was $253,000 — a 1.2% increase — and $227,534 in Charlotte County, a 5.8% increase from a year ago, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.



Amount, in U.S. dollars, that affiliates of Fort Myers-based Private Equity Group sold land in Lee County in mid-2018 for in transactions with a spate of homebuilders. In all, the company sold 3,114 acres in five separate transactions to Pulte Home Co., Lennar Homes, Stock Development Co. and Taylor Morrison of Florida Inc.



Amount in U.S. dollars that Fawcett Memorial Hospital paid in December 2018 for nearly 100 acres in Estero. The purchase by the HCA Healthcare affiliate came after state regulators approved plans for an 80-bed hospital in Lee County. The land, near Hertz’s global headquarters, also is within Estero’s planned Village Center. The Fawcett property had been entitled for up to 600 residential units and 420,000 square feet of office and retail space, though the healthcare provider is expected to seek to rezone a portion of it.





Source: LSI Cos.




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