Florida chamber: State GDP projected to outpace US — again — this year

Florida is one state among many in the U.S., but its economy continues to stand out.

The Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 Florida Economic Outlook Report predicts another year of growth across all major economic indicators in Florida, and once again, this growth will outpace the nation. 

This performance is not a new trend. It reflects years of consistent investment in workforce development and economic competitiveness in Florida. Florida’s economy has established itself as a national leader, ranked as the No. 1 state economy in the country by CNBC, reinforcing its reputation as the ideal destination for businesses, workers and capital investment.

Photo by Colin Hackley

Heading into 2026, Florida’s recent performance underscores this momentum:

• Florida’s economic growth has outpaced the nation by an average of 2.3 percentage points in the last four years, and it is expected to outpace national GDP growth again in 2026.
• Florida’s unemployment rate has remained below the national average since September 2020 and is projected to range between 4.2% to 4.3% in the coming year.
• Median single-family home listing prices have declined nationally and in Florida, with Florida’s prices falling slightly more (-1.7 percentage points) than the nation (-0.6 percentage points).

Looking ahead in 2026

As Florida enters the next phase of growth, migration remains positive, though at a slower pace than in recent years. A changing national economic environment and stabilizing population growth mean Florida is still expected to outperform the U.S. economy, but by a smaller margin than in recent years.

This moderation should be viewed as healthy. After several years of rapid population growth, expansion has naturally settled into a steadier, more sustainable rate. Slower growth today reflects stabilization, not declining competitiveness.

For business leaders, this environment presents both opportunity and responsibility. Continued growth will require sustained investment in talent pipelines, affordable housing, transportation and workforce education and training. Strategic planning, informed by reliable data, will be essential to maintaining Florida’s competitive edge. The Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 Florida Economic Outlook Report provides a detailed analysis of these trends and what they mean for employers, entrepreneurs and community leaders across the state. 

As Florida’s economy continues to evolve, data-driven decision-making will remain key to ensuring long-term prosperity.

Sheridan Morby is the senior research economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation.