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A global economist for a prominent independent investment research firm based in Sarasota County says there’s a 60% chance the U.S. will be in a recession by  summer or fall 2023. 

That technically would be the second recession in less than two years, given GDP in the U.S. fell 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and 0.9% in the second quarter. Most economists and government officials have traditionally defined a recession as two straight quarters of negative GDP.