How do economists think the economy will recover?

April’s unemployment figures hit a modern record of 14.7%, shedding 20.5 million jobs. The only ray of light is 18 million of those job losses are expected to be temporary. But there are massive economic consequences of businesses closing or reducing operations as workers and customers either voluntarily stay home or are required to by state and local policies. Most economists agree we are in a recession; the open question is how soon the recovery will begin and how quickly it will happen.

Typically, economic recession and recovery follow a V-shaped pattern as GDP falls steeply for a period, then sharply turns back upwards and grows just as fast. This has been the most common pattern in the U.S. over the past 50 years.