Boom and bust

Can Southwest Florida break the pattern of boom and bust in real estate? As fast as homebuilders rushed out of the area during the bust, they're coming back strongly in the recovery.

At a gathering of 325 building industry executives from Lee and Collier counties, Land Solutions CEO Randy Thibaut warned that as many as 20,000 lots now on the drawing boards could swamp the nascent housing market. That's in addition to the 9,000 lots that already are going to be developed over the next two years.

Thibaut, a well-regarded land broker in the region, says the number of vacant developed lots has dwindled from a supply of 160 months in the third quarter of 2009 to 39 months today based on current sales pace. A market in equilibrium is between 24 and 36 months, he says.