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Republicans put themselves in “ ... a stronger position for elections in the future,” says former U.S. Rep. Dan Miller, a Bradenton Republican. But that may not be enough for Florida Republicans to gain another seat in the U.S. House in 2012.
Elected in 1992, following reapportionment, Miller represented the Gulf Coast's Sarasota-Bradenton district for 10 years before stepping down.
He spoke to the Sarasota Republican Club this month about the 2010 elections and the upcoming redistricting process. He says that the more GOP-dominated state legislatures across the country will have a big say in how new district boundaries are drawn.
Miller points to more than 700 legislative seats that Republicans won last November giving the GOP some big advantages beyond just redrawing legislative and congressional districts using new census data.
Florida was no exception.
The 2010 election gave Florida Republicans super-majorities in both the House and Senate, plus Republicans occupy the governor's office and the three-member cabinet.
But it's the fact that Republicans dominate many more state legislatures and governor's offices than before that could lead to more GOP control in even more governors' offices and in Congress. Miller uses a baseball analogy, and says that Republicans new strength in numbers gives them a bigger “farm team” to draw from to increase the odds of winning more elections in 2012.
Many U.S. senators and representatives formerly served in state legislatures, says Miller, and with so many more Republicans in legislatures now, that makes the GOP a heavy favorite to win more seats in Congress.
Miller notes that of the 33 seats up for election in the U.S. Senate, 23 are held by Democrats, including Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Melbourne. And two Senate Democrats already announced they're stepping down.
Miller, however, remains skeptical whether Republicans can win either of Florida's two additional House seats in 2012.
That's partly because of the controversial, and some say conflicting, new criteria for drawing districts that are part of amendments 5 and 6. Federal judges could have the final say.
The GOP currently has 19 of the 25 seats. But Miller says it will largely be up to how independent voters vote in 2012, and that Republicans will be lucky to win 20 of 27.
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