Amendment 4: Undecideds will decide

A recent Mason-Dixon telephone poll asking likely voters about their leanings on the three cabinet races also inquired about Amendment 4, the so-called “Hometown Democracy” amendment, also known as the “Vote on Everything” amendment.

State constitutional amendments require 60% approval, so the 53% responding that they will vote “yes” in favor of Amendment 4 makes it appear at first that it's headed to defeat.

And, of the 14 constitutional amendments that have passed, only one would have met the 60% threshold that voters approved upping from 50% a couple years ago.

However, only 26% in the poll say they'll vote “no.”

Rhea Law, chairman and CEO of the Fowler White Boggs law firm, who has been following the issue closely, cautions against discounting the 21% who remain undecided.

Law says that historically, the “undecideds” fall two to one in favor of constitutional amendments, so that means two-thirds of those, or an additional 14%, can be expected to vote “yes,” easily enough for Amendment 4 to pass.

Fortunately, for those opposed to Amendment 4, a $6 million TV ad buy funded by Citizens for Lower Taxes and a Stronger Economy is kicking off this week, according to its leader Ryan Houck. Backers hope that will move the polls.