Gulf Coast Retail Index

What the data shows: The index of retail activity is constructed to measure personal consumption and combines the categories of autos, tourism, consumer durables such as appliances and consumer non-durables such as food. The index's base equaled 100 in 1988. For example, an index of 300 today would have taxable sales equal to three times the base period in 1988, or a 200% increase. The latest data is for February.

What it means: The retail index showed positive annual percentage growth in February for the first time since the recession began in areas such as Punta Gorda and Naples. Punta Gorda's 5.2% jump was the biggest annual percentage gain in the state. Even Tampa's modest decline was an improvement over previous comparisons. While spending hasn't been robust and comes off of low levels in 2009, the data shows that retail sales have at least stabilized on the Gulf Coast. Statewide, the index dropped 0.3%. The retail index fell the most in Tallahassee in February (-3.9%).

Forecast: Tourists shopping during the cold weather in February may have spurred an increase in retail sales on the Gulf Coast as visitors crowded shopping malls instead of the beaches. A rebound in auto sales also boosted the index. For example, auto sales in Punta Gorda jumped nearly 27% in February compared with the same month a year ago. Still, high unemployment and shaky consumer confidence will continue to weigh on the retail index.