Vitner sees Florida's economy turning

Mark Vitner is starting to see some hope in the economic tea leaves of Florida.

Retail sales, employment and exports are pointing to a modest recovery. “Florida's economy has clearly turned,” says Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities.

Still, there's lots of catching up to do because the state has lost 800,000 jobs from peak to trough in June 2009. “We'll make it back into positive employment territory later this year,” Vitner forecasts.

Big challenges loom, including the possibility of further housing price declines, additional residential and commercial foreclosures and the lack of credit. While Vitner doesn't downplay these issues, he says a recovery in employment and less-expensive housing costs will help offset these worries.

What's more, state legislators and municipalities have managed public finances relatively well through the downturn. “Given Florida's size, the fiscal challenges it faces are nowhere near what they are in other large states,” Vitner says. “We're not seeing California-like problems.”

Vitner expects the state's gross domestic product to grow 2.6% this year, followed by 3% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012. State population growth will rise to 195,000 by 2012, Vitner forecasts. “Florida's become affordable again,” he says.