Questions flawed in oil spill survey

When you look at the questions asked in AAA's most recent survey about the oil spill's impact on Gulf Coast commerce, there's really only one certain conclusion: the data is flawed.

On the face of it, it's puzzling that the folks at AAA Consumer Pulse would actually believe that only 2.7% of potential Gulf Coast visitors have changed their plans as a result of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. That would shock a lot of Panhandle hospitality enterprises.

A press release detailed the questions asked in the survey. See if you can catch the error.

To measure the spill's impact, surveyors asked if respondents had plans to visit Florida in the next 12 months; those who said yes were asked if they planned on visiting the Gulf Coast; then, those who answered yes both times were asked if their travel plans had changed, and if so, the reason.

Of the 13% who changed their Gulf Coast travel plans, 21% said those changes were a result of the spill. Multiply those percentages together, and the implication is that BP's gaffe has only detracted 2.7% of potential Gulf Coast visitors from actually visiting the state.

The problem: the only people who made it through to the spill-related questions had already identified to AAA that they planned on visiting the Gulf Coast.

See it? If you had completely cancelled your plans to visit Florida because of the spill, you would have answered no to the survey's very first question.

Oops.

AAA folks seem to be on it. A representative with AAA Consumer Pulse told Coffee Talk that this very issue was discussed in meetings with the market research team, and would be fixed in the Labor Day edition of the group's survey.

Perhaps the next round of questions, asked in a more representative fashion, will yield similar results. But more likely, the oil spill's impact on Gulf Coast tourism is bigger than we know.