Normal job market expected...in 2014

Don't get too excited about seasonal employment, typical for this time of year for Florida.

The job picture will take another three years to reach equilibrium, says Gary Jackson, director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers.

Jackson, who tracks the regional economy and publishes a monthly report, says the forecast for unemployment levels back to 5% or 6% will happen slowly and gradually through 2014. “I tend to be an optimist, so that's tough,” Jacksons says.

In fact, Jackson says that long-term outlook for unemployment is the same one that the Federal Reserve forecasted. “There's still huge problems related to the foreclosures,” he says.

Jackson will be looking for signs that a strong tourism season this winter will boost hiring permanently into the traditionally slow summer months. “The question will be what happens next spring,” he says. “We're not seeing the kind of growth we'd like to see to bring the unemployment down.”

There are some positive signs, though. Among them is the fact that employment has stabilized, taxable sales have been rising this year and the talk of a second recession has faded.