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Did jobs actually increase or decrease?
Most published versions of Florida's latest unemployment numbers will quote 8,500 as the number of jobs “lost” from September 2009 to October 2009.
However, 20,800 more individuals were working in October than in September.
And both are true — or considered true.
The difference between the two numbers hinges on the notion of seasonal adjustment.
In a nutshell, it's like this: even though there are actually more people working in Florida in October than there were in September, the actual change is less than what most experts expected would result from the growth that the month of October usually brings.
Floridians should be able to understand the seasonality of job markets, given the number of snow birds we deal with every winter. When an influx of tourists makes restaurants and retailers busier, you've got to hire additional employees to handle the increase.
This discussion raises one obvious question: does the fact that Florida has added jobs from a non-seasonal perspective say anything about the state of the recovery?
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