Tampa Bay architects predict slower real estate growth in 2026

By Anastasia Dawson
| 7:30 a.m. January 31, 2026
| 2 Free Articles Remaining!

Tampa Bay-Lakeland

The Tampa Bay area will continue to see real estate growth throughout 2026, but at a slower rate than previous years as developers face new economic challenges, a new survey says.

The American Institute of Architects’ Tampa Bay chapter surveys member architects in the region each year for its annual Voices of Architecture survey, which aims to predict future trends in area real estate and construction activity.

Architects are experts when it comes to predicting local trends, the organization says, because they are hired early in the development process — often one to three years before a development project comes to fruition.

This year’s survey, released Friday by AIA Tampa Bay, shows 55% of the 92 architects who responded expect demand for architectural services in the Tampa Bay region to increase in 2026. That’s down from 66% in 2025 and 64% in 2024.

At the same time, only 70% of respondents predicted the region’s development-related economy will be “excellent or “good” in the coming year. That’s down from 80% in both 2025 and 2024.

Several other key economic indicators saw significant drops in this year’s survey, the release says, including:

55% expect their department or firm will hire more employees in 2026 — a 9-point drop from 2025.
36% anticipated that their department or firm would grow by at least 10% in the coming year. That’s a 6-point drop from last year.

“This reflects how architects feel that the area’s development-related economy likely will grow more modestly in 2026,” Chris Kirschner, President of BDG Architects in Tampa, says in the release. “That said, the lower level of optimism is not evenly felt across all sectors. Public and higher education work has been negatively impacted the most due to uncertainty in federal and state spending. But the office sector is gaining momentum, we see renewed interest in industrial, and health care and single-family development remain steady.“

Interest (rate) impact

Higher interest rates continue to impact the Tampa Bay region’s real estate market, but not nearly as much as last year, according to the American Institute of Architects survey.

In 2025, 79% of architects said they thought higher interest rates had a negative impact on their business, while only 40% saw interest rates as an issue in this year’s survey.

Respondents were confident that more interest rate cuts are on the way, with 40% reporting they are optimistic rates will drop significantly in 2026 — an increase of siz percentage points over 2025. However, 64% of respondents say they have had to cut costs to compensate for higher interest rates. That's a substantial increase over last year’s 40%

“The survey results about the impact of interest rates reflect what many of us in the industry are seeing,” L.B. Sierra, a commercial real estate lender with the Bank of Tampa, says in a release accompanying the survey. “We are still making deals work, but higher rates are certainly a factor in the pace of new projects coming online.”

Most respondents in the survey were from Hillsborough or Pinellas counties, the release says, though many work on projects throughout the Tampa Bay region.

“Cautiously optimistic is a good way to summarize the survey results,” Frank L. Hearne, Chairman of the Environmental Practice Group with the Mechanik Nuccio Hearne & Silvestri law firm of Tampa and St. Petersburg says in the release. “Real estate development will drive a strong Tampa Bay economy in 2026, and we expect to see continued interest in redevelopment of environmentally impacted sites, including Brownfields redevelopment projects.”

author

Anastasia Dawson

Anastasia Dawson is a Tampa Bay reporter at the Business Observer. Before joining Observer Media Group, the award-winning journalist worked at the Tampa Bay Times and the Tampa Tribune. She lives in Plant City with her shih tzu, Alfie.