Executive Profile

Larry Richey has been managing principal of commercial real estate brokerage firm Cushman & Wakefield's Florida operations for three years.

Prior to overseeing the state's six offices — from Jacksonville to Miami — Richey had led the company's Central Florida operations, which includes Tampa and Orlando, since 1991. Today, Cushman & Wakefield companywide generates roughly $5 billion in annual revenue and executes transactions valued in excess of $190 billion globally each year.

A recent National Real Estate Investor monthly survey of nearly 400 top-level commercial real estate executives nationwide in July indicated that 52% believe the current real estate growth cycle has reached a peak. That represents the highest level in the past two years, save for October 2016, when it was 55%. At the same time, just 24% of respondents say they believe the market remains in a recovery or expansion phase, an 11 percentage point drop from the previous month. That represented the lowest level since October 2015. What do you say to that?

Economic expansions typically and historically last about seven years before a downturn occurs, so naturally anytime we pass the seven-year mark people get concerned. But a downturn may not happen at this time, or even into the near future, because if you look at the economic growth rates, we've as a nation been growing at about a 2% rate. So that means that in terms of economic output, we're only a third of the way there in comparison to other economic expansions. It makes me think we may have some runway left, and gives me some encouragement to consider that we're likely to have greater economic expansion this go-round than average. And I certainly haven't heard anyone ring the bell indicating the expansion is over. I think, too, that many people tend to look at calendar years in regards to economic expansion and ignore the numbers underlying the growth. I think that's largely out of habit.