While the numbers may show an economic recovery, it's hard for many business owners to feel the improvement in their business.
But Jeffrey Dietrich, senior analyst with the Institute for Trend Research, recently told a group of CEOs in Fort Myers that the recovery is durable and a dip back into recession isn't in the numbers he follows.
Speaking to Vistage, a group of CEOs, Dietrich says the weak dollar and government stimulus by countries all over the world will solidify an export-driven rebound. Asian and South American economies will continue to lead the recovery, he says.
“Some of you in construction should move to Brazil and show them how to build something,” Dietrich says. Besides its vast natural resources, Brazil will host the World Cup in soccer in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.
Florida is positioned to improve, too. “You are back in the game because of lower real estate costs,” Dietrich says.
Dietrich urged his audience to pay attention to indicators such as the Purchasing Managers' Index, published by the Institute for Supply Management. That's a more-timely barometer of future business activity than unemployment or consumer-confidence surveys and it now points to better days ahead.
However, Dietrich is concerned about inflation longer-term, in 2013 or 2014. If the Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates to counter inflation, another recession is possible in a few years.
“We're not big fans of what Bernanke is doing,” Dietrich says, referring to the Fed chief.