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For the last two years, Gary Jackson's monthly economic reports have spelled doom and gloom in graphic detail.
As director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers, it's Jackson's job to track various measures of the area's economic health. Every month, he sends via e-mail a detailed report with data such as airport traffic, unemployment and home sales.
But before you hit the delete button on February's report, scroll down to the bar charts showing the annual change in monthly taxable sales in Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties. For the first time in two years, December taxable sales in those three counties show small but positive year-over-year change.
“This is the first time we've seen it pick up,” says Jackson. “Given all the signs, it's encouraging.”
Still, Jackson isn't ready to pronounce an end to the recession on the Gulf Coast. He'd like to see three months of increased taxable sales on an annual percentage-change basis before he's more confident about a recovery. “One month doesn't give a trend,” he cautions.
While a recovery may not be in full swing, small gains in taxable sales indicate things aren't getting worse. “A lot of people would say we've bottomed out,” Jackson says.
There's plenty of work ahead, though. Jackson is worried about higher jobless claims and problems in real estate. “It's going to take us a few years to work out of this hole,” he says.
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