October Index of Retail Activity

What the data shows: The index of retail activity is constructed to measure personal consumption and it combines the categories of autos, consumer durables, tourism and consumer non-durables. The index's base equaled 100 in 1988. For example, an index of 300 today would have taxable sales equal to three times the base period in 1988, or a 200% increase. The latest available data is for October.

What it means: Every area of the Gulf Coast fared better than the index's statewide average (-4.9%) on an annual percentage change basis. Orlando suffered the largest annual decline in the index of retail activity of any area in the state on an annual basis (-6.8%). This suggests that other parts of the state are now suffering the effects of the downturn that the Gulf Coast felt first. In fact, the index's October declines in every area of the Gulf Coast are less than they were in September. Panama City was the only area of the state to show annual growth in the index (0.5%).

Forecast: The index is showing signs of stabilization on the Gulf Coast, suggesting large annual percentage drops in retail spending are fading. Most forecasts for retail sales before the holiday season called for zero growth and the University of Florida's survey of consumer confidence was unchanged in December. This indicates that 2010 retail activity will be on par with the same period in 2009, small comfort to those who expected a turnaround but relief for those who worry business could get worse.