November Index of Retail Activity

What the data shows: The index of retail activity is constructed to measure personal consumption and it combines the categories of autos, consumer durables, tourism and consumer non-durables. The index's base equaled 100 in 1988. For example, an index of 300 today would have taxable sales equal to three times the base period in 1988, or a 200% increase. The latest data is for November.

What it means: Declines in the retail index in all areas of the Gulf Coast were smaller than the statewide drop of -3.7%. In areas such as Sarasota, Naples and Punta Gorda, the annual-percentage declines in the index were less steep than in previous months. This suggests that personal consumption is beginning to stabilize and annual comparisons shouldn't be as dismal as they have been over the last two years. The hardest-hit area in November was Jacksonville, with a 6.6% annual drop in the index. Panama City was the only area that showed any growth (0.3%).

Forecast: Consumer confidence among Floridians rose sharply in January, according to the University of Florida. The biggest increase in the consumer-confidence index was the component that measures whether Floridians think this is a good time to purchase a big-ticket item. However, researchers caution that the increase may have been the result of a holiday bounce. They worry about unemployment, which remains at decade highs, as well as rising gasoline prices. However, a strong tourism season may help generate sales this spring.