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The head of commercial real estate brokerage firm Cushman & Wakefield believes the COVID-19 pandemic will double the number of people in the U.S. who permanently work remotely from home or other locations.
Cushman & Wakefield Chairman and CEO Brett White says the overwhelming majority of U.S. office workers, however, will eventually shift back into pre-COVID-19 routines in terms of occupancy.
“We think as much as 10%, 11%% of the workforce could be at home permanently,” White says earlier this month in an interview with CNBC.
“But 10% is a lot less than 90%, and 90% are going to be in offices in one form or another,” White adds.
The question of future office occupancy and usage has been swirling since March, when the coronavirus prompted lockdowns and self-quarantining. In the months since, analysts have predicted that U.S. office occupancy would decrease dramatically as more workers shift to remote working.
Still others, however, contend that office occupancy will rise as a result of the pandemic, as companies swell their space footprints to account for more permanent social distancing measures.
Several prominent technology companies that occupy significant office space, including Google, Twitter and Square, to name a few, have encouraged employees to work remotely into the foreseeable future.
Employee sentiment has played a prominent role in shaping usage. Many workers say they don’t feel safe returning to their traditional office, and many link the necessity for child care with remaining at home. White says sporadic office usage will continue until schools re-open — and safely remain open — nationwide.
“Until we have our schools open again, this is a major constraint to back to work,” White says.
That said, a Cushman & Wakefield survey concluded that 90% of all office workers are eager to return to their desks if the virus can be safely contained.
Long-term company productivity ultimately could be a factor as well.
“We are seeing a direct correlation between revenue production in businesses and those geographies that are open with people in the offices and those that aren’t,” he says.
“In the early days (of the pandemic), we talked about the high productivity at home,” White says. “That’s changing.”
Cushman & Wakefield forecasts that the U.S. office market won’t fully recover from the pandemic until 2022 or 2023, and that between now and then, vacancies could climb to as high as 18% with a corresponding rental rate dip of as much as 15%. By comparison, the office vacancy rate in Tampa Bay stood at about 10.5% at the end of the second quarter, according to a Cushman & Wakefield report.
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