Florida citrus forecast projects a nearly 25% orange production drop

There might be fewer Florida oranges heading to consumers over the next year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its first citrus crop forecast for the 2026-2027 season Friday, predicting a nearly 25% decline in Florida orange production.

Here is what the USDA is forecasting from Florida citrus producers during the upcoming season: 

• 10 million 90-pound boxes of oranges
• 1.3 million 85-pound boxes of grapefruit
• 450,000 95-pound boxes of tangerines

During the 2025-2026 season, Florida yielded 12.95 million 90-pound boxes of oranges, meaning the upcoming season will represent a 23% drop, according to a statement. 

Grapefruit production in Florida is projected to see smaller declines, with a 4% decrease since last season. Florida tangerine and tangelo production will also be down 2%, according to the forecast.

"With all the optimism around significant replanting and practical solutions to our challenges, I thought we might see higher numbers. Nevertheless, we have to remember this is an estimation of what has been growing on our trees over the last nine months from first bloom," Florida Department of Citrus Executive Director Shannon Shepp writes in an email to the Business Observer. "I've traveled our Florida backroads, and I see a lot of healthy, productive citrus trees on the verge of harvest. Last year's freezing weather may be a reason to be conservative. Whether we see higher production this year or in the next few years, we know it is coming."

There is one bright spot: lemons. Florida lemon production during the 2026-2027 season will be up 6%, based on the projections.

Additional forecasts will be released by the USDA Jan. 12, 2027; April 9, 2027; and July 9, 2027. Florida citrus season runs from September through June.

“The tenacity and grit of Florida Citrus growers cannot be overstated,” Shepp says in a statement. “In partnership with our best-in-class research community, Florida citrus remains a significant economic driver in the state of Florida and well-positioned for future investment.”

The Florida Department of Citrus is the state government agency that handles marketing, regulation and research for the Florida citrus industry, which contributes about $6 billion to the state’s economy.