- March 18, 2010
Gregory Miller says he's created an election-forecast model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election in the last 50 years.
Speaking to a gathering of real estate investors in Estero, the chief economist for SunTrust Banks and a longtime observer of Florida business says his model is based purely on economics, not his personal preference or any political measure.
Miller didn't say how his presidential-winner forecast model works so well, but he says his prediction isn't usually solid until June because the current occupant of the White House has to spend large amounts of money in the first two quarters of this year in order to win.
But if Barack Obama spends enough through June, Miller says, “the Republicans will reelect the president.”
(Cue the groans from the audience.)
And, Miller adds: “We'll be surprised by the margin.”