The boom in revenue coming in to Florida state coffers is on target to ease, if only a little, in 2024.
That was one takeaway from the Florida Economic Estimating Conference, held in late July. The event, created by the Florida Senate in 2020, is a gathering of forecasters to help state officials with planning and budgeting. Highlights, according to a report from Florida news site The Center Square, include:
- General revenue is expected to peak at $46.3 billion in fiscal year 2023, then drop to $45.3 billion in 2024. Officials project the drop, of -2.1%, will come from a slowdown in the housing market and auto sales.
- Net migration is predicted to increase by an average of 814 people per day over the next five years, with fiscal 2023 projected to have a net in-migration of 350,000 people.
- Tourism continues to boom: conference data shows Florida had 133.7 million visitors in fiscal 2022. Some 142.4 million visitors are expected in fiscal 2023, with tourism projected to break previous pre-pandemic records by at least 11%.
- The unemployment rate in Florida in June, for the second straight month, is 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The leisure and hospitality industry has now recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
- Construction costs are projected to rise, with building materials increasing in price by 100% in some instances since the pandemic, the conference found, according to The Center Square. While net migration is driving up demand for single-family homes in Florida, this is expected to drop as homeowners wait for prices and supply chain issues to improve.
- Real estate values increased significantly during the pandemic but are expected to ease off temporarily, by at least 10%, before increasing again at a more moderate rate.