In a new report entitled “Talent on the Move: Where People Will Live & Work After COVID-19,” commercial real estate brokerage firm Cushman & Wakefield projects that the Tampa area will fully rebound and that some commercial real estate sector growth — particularly that of apartments — will outpace much of the U.S. through 2025. The company also believes that Tampa Bay’s anticipated job growth will continue to be among the most robust in the country in the coming years, a phenomenon that will continue to push home prices upward at a rate that is significantly higher than expected inflation in the near term.
Tampa’s ranking in the U.S. among cities with the most office leasing activity improvement during the first quarter of this year as compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The area leased roughly 200,000 square feet more office space in the first three months of 2021 as it did in the final three months of last year, putting it slightly behind Austin, Texas, Miami and Atlanta. San Mateo County, which includes Silicon Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area, ranked first with more than 800,000 square feet leased quarter-over-quarter.
The Tampa area’s projected multifamily effective rent growth, on a percentage basis, in 2021. The figure compares to an anticipated 1.5% effective rent growth nationwide for this year. At 3.3%, Tampa’s projected growth is the 11th highest in the U.S.
Tampa’s projected multifamily effective rent growth, on a percentage basis, between 2022 and 2025. By comparison, nationally during that same period the anticipated growth in effective rents is forecast to be 3.1%.
Tampa Bay’s projected residential price growth, on a percentage basis, for this year. The growth is expected to taper off to a more moderate 0.6% annually between 2022 and 2025. At 6.3%, Tampa Bay’s home price growth percentage ranks 52nd nationwide.
Tampa’s projected job growth between 2020 and 2030, on a percentage basis, making it one of the top areas for rising employment in the U.S. By comparison, during the same period, only seven other major cities are expected to experience higher rates of employment growth: Las Vegas, with 2.6%, Orlando with 2.4%, and Austin, Texas, with 2.3%, Dallas/Fort Worth, with 2.0%, Houston with 1.9%, Miami at 1.8% and Seattle at 1.8%. Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Salt Lake City and San Antonio, Texas, also are expected to grow by 1.7%.
Tampa’s employment growth from 2010 through 2020, on a percentage basis. During that timeframe, only Atlanta, Austin, Texas, Charlotte, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Nashville, Orlando, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and San Antonio, Texas, grew by faster rates. Austin, Texas, has the most growth during the decade, with 3.5%.
The positive net absorption of multifamily units, on a percentage basis, in both the Lakeland-Winter Haven and Cape Coral areas in 2020, which “outperformed” the nation as a whole last year. Only a few U.S. markets — 12 out of 150 tracked — experienced negative net absorption last year, the result of more units coming on the market than were removed through leasing. Overall, Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston had the greatest positive net absorption, each with over 12,000 units.
Total number of people in the U.S. who changed addresses in 2020, according to U.S. Postal Service requests.
Percentage of people that relocated from one state to another in 2020.
Total number of people in the U.S. who relocated “cross country” in 2020 as compared to 2019, when the figure was 1,748,093. The result was a 13.5% increase between the two years.
Gain in population, on a percentage basis, in “mature or emerging” suburban locations in 2020.
On the prospect of economic rebound: “…The economy is very much on the mend. However, the improvement has been uneven with the South recovering more quickly and the Northeast and Midwest lagging behind.”
On projected job growth coming out of the pandemic: “The pandemic had a sudden and dramatic impact on employment, shedding over 22 million jobs in two months. Unlike other recessions, the recovery began quickly with nearly 14 million of those jobs restored by March 2021 … The U.S. is forecast to return to pre-pandemic employment within three years.”
Source: Cushman & Wakefield