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Report: four counties in region will lose $5.7 billion in second-quarter GDP

Florida faces a big economic hole, according to several projections.

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  • | 5:45 p.m. March 30, 2020
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Mark Wemple. Florida is projected to be a national leader in lost jobs and a drop in GDP.
Mark Wemple. Florida is projected to be a national leader in lost jobs and a drop in GDP.
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Several coronavirus pandemic-related economic forecast projections are out — and Florida isn’t looking too good.

According to one report, from Cambridge, Mass.-based StratoDem Analytics, the U.S., “and Florida in particular, already is in a recession and will see a nearly 20% decline in its gross domestic product for the fiscal quarter beginning April 1.”

That projected drop in GDP, 18.1%, stems from the slew of coronavirus-related shutdowns, and is the sharpest quarterly downturn in GDP modeling history, the research firm adds in the report. The projection is a consensus based on the compilation of national forecasts from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Deutsche Bank, which StratoDem Analytics further refines down to the county level based on local economic data.

The study adds that seven of the 10 counties nationwide most impacted already by the coronavirus recession are in Florida. Manatee County, projected to have the nation’s worst second-quarter decline in GDP, down 28%, leads the way in the Sunshine State, the report sates. And misery loves close-by company: those seven counties include Collier, Sarasota and Lee counties, which, combined with Manatee, are projected to lose $5.7 billion in GDP in the second quarter.


While Mark Vitner, senior economist with Wells Fargo, in a separate report says Florida could come out of this recession quickly because it’s not real estate-related, the data remains stark. Britain-based Oxford Economics, for one, recently released a study commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association that estimated 305,146 Florida hotel-related workers likely will lose jobs. Other models forecast 400,000 Floridians already have lost their jobs and 2 million of the state’s 10.4 million workers are in job limbo, the StratoDem report adds.




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