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TAMPA — The economy is improving for the country and for Tampa Bay, economist Anthony Chan told a gathering of business leaders in Tampa Thursday evening.
“Things are getting better because housing is getting better,” says Chan, chief economist for private wealth management at J.P. Morgan in New York. “When housing prices rise, consumers feel better and are more likely to spend more, which in turn stimulates the economy. We are seeing prices all over the country improving.”
Chan spoke during the Association for Corporate Growth (ACG) meeting at the University Club. The chance of entering another recession in the months ahead is just 20%, the economist estimates. However, Chan says national issues such as whether to raise the debt ceiling on a longer term basis need to be resolved, since they have a negative impact on the economic recovery process.
“Tampa is doing a lot better than the nation,” by economic measures, according to Chan. The level of job creation is higher than for the nation at large, for instance. And the region may be benefiting from Florida Gov. Rick Scott's aggressive campaign to bring jobs to the state.
However, the level of optimism among small and medium-sized businesses across the country is worrisome, says Chan. Small and medium-sized companies generate 80% of new jobs, and surveys show entrepreneurs are not optimistic, he notes.
Still, a number of other indicators are showing positive signs. Commercial loan activity as a percentage of the overall economy has been increasing, says Chan. Company profits have been growing at a faster rate than the U.S. economy, he reports.
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