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What the data shows: The index of retail activity is constructed to measure personal consumption and it combines the categories of autos, consumer durables, tourism and consumer non-durables. The index's base equaled 100 in 1988. For example, an index of 300 today would have taxable sales equal to three times the base period in 1988, or a 200% increase. The latest data is for August and the annual percentage comparison is for August 2008.
What it means: Every area of the Gulf Coast reported smaller decreases in the retail index than the state (-7.3%), a sign that this coast may have seen the worst of the retail problems. Although Fort Myers continues to be the hardest-hit area on the Gulf Coast, the retail index fell less on an annual percentage change basis in August than in July, when it dropped 8.4%. The area of the state with the biggest annual percentage decline was Lakeland (-9.7%) and the area with the smallest drop was Melbourne (-2.4%).
Forecast: Consumer confidence and the labor market must rise again before the index of retail activity rebounds. The University of Florida's consumer-confidence survey in October says consumers are the most cautious since the Great Depression and are only likely to buy if retailers cut prices drastically. Most retailers are forecasting no sales growth from last holiday's dismal shopping season.
AUGUST RETAIL INDEX
Area Retail index %Annual change
Punta Gorda 249.9 -4.9%
Naples 294.4 -5.4%
Sarasota 204.9 -5.9%
Tampa 198.7 -7.0%
Fort Myers 261.8 -7.8%
Source: Florida Legislature Office of Economic & Demographic Research
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